Democrats punch back in US elections - and see hope for 2026

By Frankie Taggart, AFP

If 2024 was a dumpster fire for Democrats, then 2025 might be the firehose. Wednesday's (NZT) US elections weren't just wins, say analysts, they offer a way forward against US President Donald Trump's Republicans.

Abigail Spanberger flipped Virginia's governorship with a double-digit win, fellow moderate Mikie Sherrill took New Jersey by storm and Zohran Mamdani turned New York City into a progressive playground.

These were not isolated victories, say Washington-watchers, but full-throated endorsements of a new Democratic vibe centred on the middle class.

"These two candidates, in particular -- in Virginia and New Jersey -- showed the Democrats how to mobilize their base, how to get out the vote," said Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown University.

"That is what Donald Trump has been better at nationally than the Democrats, and this is a path forward for them."

Middle-class mojo

Democrats have long been criticised for not speaking the language of ordinary voters, but Tuesday showed a shift to kitchen-table issues as Spanberger and Sherrill talked rent, groceries and gas prices.

The Democrats showed they were listening, political commentators noted, with middle-income voters swinging back to the Democrats like it was 2008.

"What really stood out was not any kind of sweeping ideological shift," said veteran election strategist Mike Fahey.

"Instead, I would characterize it as a return to candidates who speak to the kinds of everyday concerns that most of us can relate to, as opposed to the kind of partisan identity drumming that we saw way too much of in 2020."

That shift also helped patch up another frayed relationship: the one with Latino voters. After drifting toward Trump in 2024, Latinos showed tentative signs of coming back.

Independents, meanwhile, swung hard. In Virginia and New Jersey, they broke for Democrats by double-digit margins turning toss-ups into blowouts.

Add to that the youth vote -- especially in New York, where Mamdani's grassroots campaign lit up college campuses and TikTok feeds - and you have a coalition that looks suspiciously like Barack Obama's.

Above all, Tuesdays elections confirmed that the House of Representatives is in play.

With California voting in a new electoral map and momentum in swing districts, Democratic leaders were voicing confidence in the wake of election night that could make up the seats they need to flip the chamber in next year's midterms.

The Senate is a tougher nut, but party strategists are optimistic that they can keep the focus on affordability and avoid internal conflict.

Candidate chemistry

Spanberger and Sherrill are moderates with national security cred and fresh energy. Mamdani is an articulate firebrand with an everyman touch.

The messaging wasn't so much "Save Democracy" as "Save My Paycheck," as Democrats cleaned up by focusing on cost of living and talked about trash pickups, and not just Trump.

"It's clearer than ever that affordability needs to be the centerpiece of the Democrats' message going into the midterms," political communications expert Andrew Koneschusky told AFP.

"The affordability message cuts across demographics and highlights a major vulnerability for Republicans. Trump campaigned on bringing prices down and he hasn't done that."

Off-year elections historically favor the party out of power, turnout is lower and the electorate skews older and whiter.

But for election-watchers, this year felt different. Voters weren't just venting - they were choosing relatable candidates.

One big takeaway, says Koneschusky, is that Democrats need candidates who reflect their electorates rather than taking a "one-size-fits-all" approach.

"In some cases, that may mean fielding progressive candidates. In other cases, it may mean moderate or centrist candidates," he said.

"There's a lot of talk right now about whether Democrats should shift more to the left or more to the centre. The answer is both. It depends on their constituents."

- AFP