Minister Moutchou ends New Caledonia visit: political announcements, no new financial commitment

French minister for overseas Naïma Moutchou left New Caledonia at the weekend after a 5-day stay, with an announcement regarding a re-scheduled referendum-like consultation on a project for the French Pacific territory's political future, but few pledges regarding further French commitment to tackle a dire financial situation.

Her visit also coincided with another formal announcement from one major "moderate" component of the pro-independence movement to officialise an already existing split with the now hard-line FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front).

On Friday, 14 November, the PALIKA [Kanak Liberation Party] revealed the outcome of its 50th Congress held six days earlier, which now makes official its withdrawal from the FLNKS (a platform it was part of since the FLNKS was set up in 1984,

It originally comprised PALIKA, UPM [Progressist Union in Melanesia], Union Calédonienne (UC) and Wallisian-based Rassemblement démocratique océanien (RDO).

The PALIKA said it decided to formally split from FLNKS because it disagreed with the FLNKS approach since the May 2024 riots.

Since the announcement on Friday, PALIKA spokesman Charles Washetine told several local media his party was still supporting a project of "full sovereignty" with France, through negotiation and dialogue.

But "it's certainly not through destruction that we will build something for our children", he stressed.

He admitted the Bougival text was "perfectible".

At the time, especially after the FLNKS Congress held in August 2024, two of its significant components, PALIKA and UPM had already distanced itself from the FLNKS and the CCAT (Field Action Coordinating Cell, a group that was then tasked to organise protests against a planned Constitutional change that later degenerated into the riots that claimed the lives of 14 people), saying it "did not recognise itself".

At its August 2024 Congress, to which neither PALIKA nor UPM took part, FLNKS also resolved that such "mobilisation tools" as CCAT and several other groups, were officially accepted into the party's fold.

Christian Téin, who was at the time the CCAT's leader, was also elected President of the FLNKS, in absentia.

He had been arrested two months earlier and flown to Paris, where he served one year behind bars before judges ruled he could be released, pending his trial at a yet undetermined date.

He is still facing crime-related charges in relation to his alleged role during the May 2024 riots.

UPM held its Congress at the weekend and it is widely believed it will make similar announcements regarding its formal withdrawal from FLNKS.

"I'm not interfering in local politics, but PALIKA has been a major player in terms of dialogue, forever (...) What matters to me is to know who my interlocutors are", Moutchou briefly commented on PALIKA's split from FLNKS.

She noted however that in its latest communiqué, FLNKS still expressed the wish to pursue dialogue.

"But they are rejecting the Bougival agreement, they're rejecting it in block. They just don't want to talk on this basis. So the door should stay open".

During talks with the French minister last week, most of the topics revolved around the so-called "Bougival" political compromise that resulted in the signing, on 12 July, of a document, initially by all political parties, under the auspices of former French Overseas minister Manuel Valls.

The Bougival text envisages the creation of a "State of New Caledonia", its collateral "New Caledonian Nationality" and the transfer of a number of French key powers (such as foreign affairs) to the Pacific territory.

But FLNKS, on 9 August, formally rejected the text, saying their negotiators' signatures were now null and void because the text was regarded as a "lure of independence" and that it did not satisfy the party's demands in terms of short-term full sovereignty.

Since then, as part of a new Cabinet let by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Manuel Valls was replaced in October by Naïma Moutchou.

In this capacity, she travelled to New Caledonia for the first time, saying she did not want to "do without FLNKS", provided FLNKS does not want to "do without the other (parties)".

Parties supporting the Bougival document, since, have also urged FLNKS to re-join the negotiating process, even if this means the original July 2025 document has to be modified according to their demands.

During her stay, last week, separate meetings (locally described as "bilateral") were held with every political force in New Caledonia, including FLNKS, and other pro-independence movements (such as the PALIKA and the UPM, regarded as "moderates") but also the pro-France parties (such as Les Loyalistes, Rassemblement-LR, Calédonie Ensemble and Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien).

But the FLNKS declined to join a final roundtable with other political stakeholders on Thursday and Friday last week, saying it was not mandated to negotiate.

True to her approach of "listening first and replying after", Moutchou refrained from making any comment or announcement during the first three days of her mission.

De facto referendum now comes first

But as she prepared to leave on Friday, she spoke to announce that the project of a "citizen's consultation" (a de facto referendum) would take place sometime in February 2026 to ask the local population whether they supported the Bougival document's implementation.

The consultation was already in the pipeline as part of the Bougival document, but it was originally planned to happen after a Constitutional review purposed to incorporate the text, ideally before the end of 2025.

But the Constitutional process, which would require the approval of votes from both the French Senate (Upper House) and National Assembly (Lower House), was delayed by instability in French politic, including the demise of former Prime Minister François Bayrou and the subsequent advent of his successor Sébastien Lecornu.

On Friday, Moutchou also issued a brief communiqué saying that "pro-Bougival" parties had agreed to confirm their support in the implementation of the text and to "hold an anticipated citizens' consultation".

"We're going to ask New Caledonians their opinion first. This will give more power to what is being discussed", she told public broadcaster NC la 1ère on Friday.

She said this was to "give back New Caledonians their voice in a moment of tension, because we indeed are in a moment of tension, when political choices are not always understood".

In a media statement released the same day, the FLNKS reiterates its stance, saying "the so-called Bougival project cannot constitute a working base because it goes against (New Caledonia's) decolonisation process".

"It's written in black and white in the Bougival agreement project: the decolonisation process goes on", Moutchou told local media.

The party also warns against "Any attempt of forceful passage (passage en force) risks bringing the country to a situation of durable instability".

In terms of security, Moutchou said "to be very clear, it will be zero tolerance".

"Security forces will stay as long as needed. We currently have twenty gendarmerie squadrons (over 2,500 personnel). This is twenty out of the 120 squads available for the whole of France", she told NC la 1ère.

"I'm very attached to the authority of the State. There are rules and they must be respected. You can demonstrate, you can say you don't agree. But you don't cross the red line", she told Radio Rythme Bleu on Friday.

The FLNKS said during the minister's visit, they have handed over a project for a "framework agreement" that would serve as a "basis" for "future discussions".

On the pro-France side, several leaders have reacted favourably to Moutchou's parting release.

"The minister's visit concludes on a positive note", Rassemblement-LR leader Virginie Ruffenach wrote on social networks, saying this citizen consultation project will "turn New Caledonians into judges of peace".

"At this stage, FLNKS does not seem to want to find an agreement with the (French) State and New Caledonia's political forces. The other forces have therefore made the choice to submit the Bougival agreement to New Caledonians before the (French) Parliament approves a Constitutional Bill", wrote Les Loyalistes leader Sonia Backès.

However, it remains unclear on what basis this de facto local referendum will be held in terms of electoral role and who will be qualified to vote.

No new economic pledge

In the brief communiqué on Friday last week, a "plan to re-launch New Caledonia's economy" to "address the challenges" is also mentioned as one of the agreed goals.

But there was no announcement regarding further financial assistance from France to salvage New Caledonia's economy, still bearing the consequences of the May 2024 insurrectional riots and that has caused material losses of over €2 billion, an estimated drop of 13.5 percent of its GDP and thousands of unemployed.

There are also increasingly strident calls to convert the €1 billion French loan (bringing New Caledonia to an estimated 360 percent indebtedness rate regarded as "unbearable") into a grant.

Moutchou said this was currently "not on the agenda".

The crucial mining industry, which was already suffering industrial issues even before the May 2024 riots, compounded with emerging regional competition, needs to be re-structured in order to overhaul its business model and production costs, she also said.

'We don't have the financial means to build the new prison'

A €500 million project to build a new prison, initially announced early 2024 for a scheduled completion in 2032, will no longer take place, despite numerous condemnations due to the appalling living conditions for prisoners in the current "Camp Est" prison complex in Nouméa.

The Camp Est suffers an overpopulation rate of 140 percent.

"I'm not going to tell you stories, in the current (French) budgetary conditions, we don't have the financial means to build the new prison", she told NC la 1ère.

Instead, it was now envisaged to set a semi-freedom centre for host inmates serving moderate jail sentences, thus relieving the overcrowded "Camp Est" premises of an estimated one hundred people.